Why does rent jump in year two?
Because renewals price from base rent, not from what you paid after the special. A move-in special lowers year one; it doesn’t lower the base. At the board’s median special of 10.8 weeks on a 12-month lease (Oct 25, 2026), year-one rent averages about 21% below base, so year two at the same base is about 26% higher. That’s why we show year two beside every one of the current specials with year two.
A dated example
Illustration, values as of Oct 25, 2026; live page uses the feed
Citizen House Decker: $1,172 base, up to 10 weeks free on 12 months = $947 net effective. Required fees $112.50, so $1,059 a month. Year two at the same base: $1,172 + $112.50 = $1,284.50, a $225 jump (+21%).
The jump is +21% here rather than +26% because fees are included on both sides; fees don’t change with the special, so they soften the percentage.
How the jump grows with the special
| Weeks free (12 months, $1,500 base) | Year-one net effective | Year two at 0% | Jump | Year two at +3% | Jump |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | $1,385 | $1,500 | +8% | $1,545 | +12% |
| 8 | $1,269 | $1,500 | +18% | $1,545 | +22% |
| 10.8 | $1,189 | $1,500 | +26% | $1,545 | +30% |
| 12 | $1,154 | $1,500 | +30% | $1,545 | +34% |
Rent only, fees excluded. What it means for you: the deeper the special, the bigger the year-two gap. Budget for year two, not just year one.
Year two at 0% and +3%
We show two cases because no one knows the renewal offer in advance:
- 0%: base rent holds. This is the minimum jump from losing the special.
- +3%: base rises 3%. A common planning assumption.
Year two = base rent × (1 + assumed change) + required fees
Use the year-two calculator on our tools page to run your own numbers.
Three ways to soften the jump
- Prefer a lower base over a deeper special. A $50 lower base saves $600 in year one and lowers year two by $50 a month. A bigger special on a higher base looks better now and costs more later.
- Move your renewal month. A 15-month lease can push your renewal into a different season, when pricing may be lower. See 12 vs. 15 months.
- Run a Renewal Check at month 10. Compare your offer with current specials and base rents at nearby new buildings.
What the month-10 Renewal Check does
At month 10, before most renewal offers arrive, we pull current comps: base rent, specials, and true monthly at comparable new buildings near you. If nearby buildings are still leasing up, you have room to ask your community to hold the base, offer a renewal concession, or waive a fee. If the numbers favor moving, we’ll show you that too, including move-in cash.
The renewal letter isn’t the last word
Communities often have more flexibility than the first offer shows, especially when nearby lease-ups are competing for the same renters.
Check the 24-month total before you sign
The cleanest way to see the whole picture is the 24-month total: year one after the special plus year two at base. Our guide on comparing new buildings shows four buildings side by side, where the deepest special lost on a two-year basis because of its higher base.
