Is now a good time to rent a new apartment in Austin?
We don’t predict rents, but the supply numbers frame the window. Austin delivered a record 32,089 apartments in 2024, and 18,108 were still under construction in Q2 2026 (Northmarq). Deliveries fall from about 13,000-14,900 in 2026 to about 7,000 in 2027 (Austin Apartment Association; Northmarq). For you, that means 2026 has more new buildings competing in lease-up than 2027 is expected to. Today’s numbers, dated, are on today’s board.
The dated numbers
| Measure | Value | Source and date |
|---|---|---|
| Deliveries, 2024 | 32,089 (record) | Northmarq |
| Under construction | 18,108 | Northmarq, Q2 2026 |
| Expected deliveries, 2026 | About 13,000-14,900 | Austin Apartment Association; Northmarq |
| Expected deliveries, 2027 | About 7,000 | Austin Apartment Association; Northmarq |
| Metro effective rent | $1,316 (−5.0% YoY, +1.8% QoQ) | Northmarq, Q2 2026 |
| Metro asking rent | $1,508 | Yardi, May 2026 |
| Class A vs. Class B effective | $1,420 vs. $1,376 | Northmarq, Q2 2026 |
| Stabilized units with a concession | 37% | RealPage, June-July 2026 |
| Board median special | 10.8 weeks | Our board, Oct 25, 2026 |
We say “effective” or “asking” every time. The gap between $1,508 asking and $1,316 effective is mostly concessions.
What falling supply could mean
Fewer deliveries mean fewer buildings in early lease-up, which is when specials tend to be deepest. If that pattern holds, renters in 2027 may see fewer deep specials on brand-new buildings. It could also go the other way if demand softens. That’s why we show today’s numbers with dates rather than forecasts. Our guide on where new-build vacancy is highest shows which submarkets have the most room to ask today.
A useful reference point
After concessions, Class A effective rent was only $44 above Class B in Q2 2026 (Northmarq). New construction is unusually close in price to older buildings right now.
Rent now or wait: four questions
- When does your current lease end? If it ends in the next few months, waiting means a month-to-month premium or a short renewal, which often costs more than any expected drop.
- How flexible is your move date? A flexible date lets you pick the best special among today’s buildings and pre-leasing ones.
- How long will you stay? If you’ll renew, year two matters more than year one, and year two prices from base rent.
- What’s the 24-month total? Compare a deep special today with a likely smaller special later on a two-year basis.
Our pre-lease or move now guide walks through the choice between a building opening soon and one open today.
A middle path: pre-leasing
If your lease ends in spring or summer 2027, buildings opening soon may line up with your date. We list only opening dates confirmed within the last 30 days, and we read the holding agreement and delay terms with you. Pre-lease specials can be strong, and you get a brand-new unit, with delivery risk to manage.
What we’d do
We’d decide on your lease end, then compare the best specials available for that date on a 24-month basis, including fees and year two at 0% and +3%. If nothing works today, we’d set an alert on buildings you save, with your consent, at most one a day, and recheck as dates approach.
